Opinion Poll in India – A Necessary Evil?
An
opinion poll surveys a particular sample and presents an explicit shape to
public opinion before an incoming election. One of the pioneering opinion polls
happened in history was conducted during the contest for the United States
Presidency in 1824 by the Harrisburg
Pennsylvanian. However, the methodology adopted for opinion polls must be
nation-specific because of a particular nation’s unique form of democracy.
Opinion
polls, such as the ones conducted by the joint venture of the Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and CNN-IBN, prior to India’s general
election in 2014 brought forward a variety of concerns associated with the
system of opinion polling. Firstly, in response to the issue whether
extrapolation of opinion of a small fraction of the electorate can be accepted
as an authentic exercise, Rajeeva Karandikar, Director of the Chennai
Mathematical Institute, claimed to have developed a model which can determine,
among more than two candidates, the winner with ninety-nine percent confidence
if the gap between the winner and the candidate coming second is at least four
percent [1].
Secondly,
the conversion of vote share into seats in an opinion poll is a potential
pitfall in the prediction of the Indian election because of the possibility of
not winning any seat by a hopeful party even after having significant vote
share in the opinion poll.
Thirdly,
opinion polls cannot estimate bull-whip
effect – the influence of undecided voters on the day of actual polling [2].
Although exit polls can capture such effect, it is impractical to choose
respondents from a pre-chosen list, and hence sample profiles in exit polls often
differ widely from population profiles.
Fourthly,
the underestimation of minorities and new political entrants can alter the
prediction of opinion polls in totality. For instance, no one predicted Sheila
Dixit’s defeat at the hands of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the recently concluded
Delhi Assembly election.
The
feedback effect of opinion polls on the electorate has a mix of constructive
and disastrous consequences. For one, voters can make informed choices because
of the deliberation of several electoral manifestos in different channels of
mass media. However, such polls can be potential tools of misuse depending on
the user. Therefore, the latest demand for ban of opinion polls is not thoroughly
justified and such polls may have a scientific basis albeit taken with a pinch
of salt.
References
1. “Having their say”, Rajeeva Karandikar,
Frontline, Vol. 31, No. 6
Priyadarshika Talukdar
M.Sc Media, P.G 1
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