YPOST

Poll With A Hole

With the onset of elections 2014, there has been increasing conflict in the minds of the people as to cast their vote in favour of which party. Just like every other youth in this nation, I am also keen to make a choice that will create a difference. Here I am about to discuss about the good, the bad and the ugly about the popular practice in India known as “Opinion Poll”, its reliability and authenticity in shaping the government of our  nation.

                    “Opinion Poll” is the virtual voice and the choice of the ordinary man. It is purely a statistical analysis using rational and moral methods of reasoning to find out probable’s. The most significant aspect of opinion poll is that the opinion of political parties is divided, however, every political party privately agree that these are actually beneficial for them.It helps in identifying their elections strategy, but with time, there has been increasing controversy about  opinion poll in India..This is mostly due to the sampling errors and biasness in selection. Both the above stated methodologies create tension amongst the existing political parties in a short-run. If a poll is driven by an agenda. There is very little to stop them from monitoring the results to fit that agenda or citing questions likely to evoke a certain response. Thus it can be said that all that matters is here is accuracy and precision of the scales at which these are carried out.

If we consider elections 2014,we see there is a massive opinion poll taking place every week and in all the opinion  BJP led NDA is leading, irrespective of the fact that in India northern and southern regions behave in altogether differently. The NDA has praised these opinion polls as they have predicted a bigger and brighter future for them.

Whether opinion polls can adversely or positively impact politicians or say parties remains a mystery, the jury is still out about its reliability and  accuracy. The most disquieting aspect is that not only these polls, they have the power to influence voters but they also influence the perception and outlook of the ordinary mass of our population.

Taking into consideration , Arvin Kejriwal's opinion, he explained that for the last few weeks, there has been increasingly higher projections for BJP. He also protested against the speculation opinion polls. He explained that channels like TIMES NOW, HEADLINES TODAY and INDIA TV ,should offer explanation and make full disclosure to the public, as the public has the right to know about the leader who would lead them for a better India.

Thus, we can say that despite its usefulness, the opinion poll also have certain drawbacks and limitations. Sting operation conducted by news channel shows they could be monitored on favour of political parties. It shows how a survey can be manipulated by charging lump sum money. Thus, this raises a question against the authenticity of the opinion poll. Thus manipulation can be done as per the needs of the political parties. The biggest lie would be uncovered by sting operation conducted by news channels.this reveals how polls misleads the general public.

 A survey conducted between three age groups i.e. (18 -25, 26 -40, 41-60) shows the varied opinion. The youth of India has mostly averse feeling towards opinion polls. On contrary the middle aged group believes its just another cue that simplify their choices.Whereas the other group is reliant on opinion polls and follow the predictions.

Now the question that pops onto our minds is how precise the “Opinion Poll” is about BJP's lead in the 2014 elections. The answer is very simple, the authenticity and relevance of “Opinion Poll” is very debatable. Hence it is worthwhile to rely on your instincts.

Pamela Gupta

M.sc Media P.G 1