YPOST

The Bharatiya Opinion Poll… 

“Public opinion polls are rather like children in garden, digging things up all the time to see how they are growing.”

Once upon a time the national elections used to be conducted within a period of week or so, we now see that even this year’s election has spread over a month. Even in a country like U.S. the entire voting process is completed in a day and the final results are declared the same evening. It is a reflection of immaturity of our democracy and the passions generated in the polling process

Opinion poll is a very controversial concept. With the request by the Congress party to the election commission to ban or restrict the opinion poll, the subject is now a matter of debate in the media and elsewhere. Naturally, t.v media , indeed newspaper also, opposed the move of congress party in general, probably more from their own TRP/Readership perspective.

The controversy from the technical point of view are-questions need to be answered relating to the number of samples, randomness of the subjects covered, existence or lack of bias. These are extremely relevant issues from the scientific cum mathematical point of view to establish “confidence” limit, that is reliability. The tendency in many samples is to cover metropolitan or urban areas, as this is more convenient; only a small portion of the samples come from rural areas and very few from really remote parts. Very rigorous identification of the subjects, based on mathematical randomness, is prescribed to enhance reliability- it is doubtful if many of the present polls meet these criteria.

         The other technical aspect relate to whether the interviews are true proxies to how a person will actually vote in the polling booth. In India large number of people doesn’t give accurate answers to such polls. Another technicality is that many media houses are owned and run by political parties and big business houses, so there is chance that they can manipulate the polling patterns.

          For example: If ABP news is a supporter of the congress party then it would be but obvious that they will follow the polls in favor of congress rather than going for any other party.

          “Media houses and many political parties have vehemently argued that any check or control on                     dissemination of poll results will tantamount to interfere with free speech which is a fundamental right.             This is certainly true; any circumscription of dissemination of opinion polls ought to be done only if                  absolutely essential and with great care.” – INDIAN EXPRESS

On the whole it is being viewed that there is a necessity to bring some regulation and control over opinion poll and it also should be considered if opinion polls are permitted after election notification is issued.

Amrita Ghoshal
M.Sc Media, P.G 1