Relevance of opinion poll in India
As election of 2014 is approaching heartbeat of every political party is rising and to make it more
intense there are opinion polls coming every week. The very interesting fact about the opinion poll is
that opinion of political parties is divided. All political parties are however privately agree that these
opinion polls are actually very beneficial for them as they not only provide them an opportunity to
analyze their election strategy. But at the same time there is growing controversy about the opinion
poll.
Opinion polls are purely statistical analysis using both inductive and deductive methods of reasoning
to find out probables. All that matters here is accuracy of samples and the scale at which they are
carried out. It Opinion polls are purely statistical analysis using both inductive and deductive methods
of reasoning to find out probables. That matters here is accuracy of samples and the scale at which
they are carried out .It is not possible that any marketing agency will cover the whole country or for
that matter a particular state, therefore, Reliability of opinion poll is often doubted. Opinion polls
were started in late eighties and with the passage of time they gained popularity. Opinion poll also
attracted many political analysts who developed new techniques to predict the outcome of election.
Some of agencies even borrowed techniques from foreign agencies.
For election of 2014 once again opinion polls are being carried out by many agencies. And in all the
opinion polls BJP led NDA is leading. Despite the fact that in India North and South regions behave
differently in all most all the elections held, It is interesting to see that what will be the reaction of
these regions in 2014 election. The NDA has praised these opinion polls only because they are
supporting as well as enhancing its prospects forth next government. As usual the Congress Party led
UPA is facing rough weather in all For election of 2014 once again opinion polls are being carried out
by many agencies. And in all the opinion polls BJP led NDA is leading. Despite the fact that in India
North and South regions behave differently in all most all the elections held, It is interesting to see
that what will be the reaction of these regions in 2014 election. The NDA has praised these opinion
polls only because they are supporting as well as enhancing its prospects forth next government.
As usual the Congress Party led UPA is facing rough weather in all the opinion polls, Therefore, it is
critical of all the opinion polls.
In latest opinion poll conducted by ABP-Nielsen NDA is getting 229 to 233 seats is based on more than
twenty nine thousands samples and seems to be accurate. It has divided the whole country into four
parts and then concluded that in the north India BJP In south will win 81seats out of 151seatsl the
opinion polls, therefore, it is critical of all the opinion polls.
In latest opinion poll conducted by ABP-Nielsen NDA is getting 229 to 233 seats is based on more than
twenty nine thousands samples and seems to be accurate. It has divided the whole country into four
parts and then concluded that in the north India BJP In south will win 81seats out of 151seats
.In south India BJP will win 18seats out of 134 seats. In east India it will win 36 seats out of 142 seats.
Finally in the west India BJP will win 74 seats out of 116 seats.
As far as the vote share is concerned BJP is leading with 33% followed by UPA with 26%.Modi is still
the most popular candidate for the PM post with 54% popularity graph. Regional parties will also play
important role in the government formation. Among the regional parties TMC, AIDMK, BJD and YSR
Congress will play very important role. In short the so called Third Front will not only win168 seats but
even disturb NDA equation of forming the next government.
Kalyani Debsingha
M.Sc Media, P.G 1
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