Is Coalition
Politics The Ultimate Game-Changer???
Political coalition or political alliance is
an agreement for cooperation between different political parties on common
political agenda, often for purposes of contesting an election to mutually
benefit by collectively clearing
election thresholds or otherwise benefitting from characteristics of the voting
systems or for government formations after elections. A coalition government is
a cabinet of a parliamentary government in which several parties cooperate. The
usual reason given for this arrangement is that no party on its own can achieve
a majority in the parliament. The growth of regional political parties has
become one of the vital reasons for the emergence of coalition politics in
India. India
has a multi-party system, where there are a number of national as well as
regional parties. A regional party may gain a majority and rule a particular
state. If a party represents more than 4 states then such parties are
considered as national parties. In the years since India's independence, India
has been ruled by the Indian
National Congress (INC) for 48 of those
years. The party enjoyed a parliamentary majority barring two brief periods
during the 1970s and late 1980s. This rule was interrupted between 1977 to
1980, when the Janata Party coalition
won the election owing to public discontent with the controversial
state of emergency declared by the then
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
The Janata Dal won
elections in 1989, but its government managed to hold on to power for only two
years. Between 1996 and 1998, there was a period of political flux with the
government being formed first by the right-wing nationalist Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) followed by a left-leaning United
Front coalition. In 1998, the BJP formed
the National
Democratic Alliance with smaller regional
parties, and became the first non-INC and coalition government to complete a
full five-year term. The 2004 Indian elections saw
the INC winning the largest number of seats to form a government leading
the United
Progressive Alliance, and supported by
left-parties and those opposed to the BJP.
Coalition politics has come to stay in India but by using the coalition
methods, the major political outfits continue to loot the nation’s resources
aided by various agencies. Coalition politics should have helped the system
work better and people to work and live better. But, unfortunately, it has
increased the levels of corruption. No party should field more than 50% of the
total seats the coalition wants to contest. Now the practice is in favor of the
major political party that leads the coalition to field as many seats as
possible, leaving remaining seats for others to share. Obviously, the main
party gains more seats after the poll. A major party like Congress party and
BJP have decided to go for coalition in polls as a policy because they are not
sure of winning the seats on their won necessary to form the government and
with the help from other parties they could form the ministry. In the process,
what is happening are the main parties exploiting other parties to garner votes
and seats in the parliament and state
assemblies. Hence the Election commission must stipulate the maximum number of
seats a party in a coalition can contest and the number of cabinet positions
after the poll when form the government.
With the congress sure to
lose in the General elections, the only way it can remain in the public eye is
by ensuring a split verdict and actively supporting the formation of a weak
coalition government which will result in chaos and instability and allow the
Congress to catapult itself back on to the political centre stage. The
electoral verdicts in last few general elections and state elections have made
it amply clear that Indians opt for stability over chaos. The fractured mandate
of the 1990s is a thing of the past. India suffered much during those unstable
regime changes and frequent elections. The only non-Congress party that could
provide stability was the Atal Bihari Vajpayee led National Democratic Alliance
(NDA). Now, we seem to be firmly in an era of a two party/alliance system. The
Congress led UPA and the BJP led NDA are the two choices a voter must choose
from unless they want a replay of the terrible experimentation with the Third
Front with precarious numbers in Parliament. Before every general election, like
clockwork, regional satraps not allied with either the Congress or BJP begin
speaking about a Third Front or a secular front. Mamta Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) is proposing
something called a federal front. Whatever you call it a third front is another
name for instability and confusion. The only reason it is important to evaluate
and consider the option of a Third Front before the elections is because there
is a strong possibility that the Congress might prop up a raggedy tag bunch to
usher in chaos and upheaval. Each minister has done his best to touch rock
bottom. Finance minister P.Chidambaram oversaw the tanking of the economy and
External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid famously called the Chinese
incursions mere ‘acne’ on the face of India. I have no doubt that when the
history of independent India is written, the 10 years of UPA rule will be
called a dark decade , a decade of lost hopes and squandered promises.
Without a doubt, the star under-performer of this dark decade is Defense
Minister AK Antony. His incompetence in office has cost India dearly and defense
preparedness has hit rock-bottom. While everyone knows of the landmine of the
ailing economy set up by the Congress for the next government to step into as
soon as it assumes office, defense preparedness is at best an unknown which
many suspect might be a bigger and more dangerous ticking bomb. One would think
the much touted ‘cleanest minister’ of the UPA government would be shattered by
the series of unexpected and unavoidable incidents that have plagued the armed
forces recently. However, hours after the tragic crash of the C-130J Hercules
aircraft in Gwalior where 5 air force officers were killed, Antony surfaced not
to talk about the crash but about a ‘new secular front’ to keep the BJP out of
power. He was quoted by newspapers as saying, “After the elections, several
parties which are not ready to join hands with the Congress will have to
rethink to avoid the danger of bringing the BJP to power.”Right after the crash
the Defense minister only had politics in his mind and instead of defense strategy
he could only strategize on keeping the BJP out of power. It is important to
look at what Antony said and why voters must analyze this seriously. The
Congress is certain that they will not win this election or even end up as a
single largest party. All indicators suggest that the Congress is fast hurtling
down to its lowest number ever in the Lok Sabha. The Congress is resigned to
this reality which is why their election campaign is insipid, lackluster and
sans enthusiasm. A tired campaign strategy led by a reluctant non-achiever will
not score very high in the electoral battle. After a decade in power, Congress
has made peace with the fact that they will not be voted into office again, but
they are certainly going to fight to ensure a split verdict. A split verdict
will result in chaos and Congress will benefit the most from this. The Congress
this time is not fighting the 2014 elections to win but to ensure that on May
16, the nation sees a fractured mandate. The Congress realizes that a Narendra
Modi led BJP government, once voted in, will be here to stay. Only Modi can
deliver stability and good governance in the current scenario. With years of
administrative experience, he will certainly hit the ground running. Standing
on the twin pillars of development and good governance under Modi’s leadership
India has a good chance of recovering from the terrible Congress rule of the
last decade. So it may not be easy to dislodge the Modi government and the
Congress will fast disappear into oblivion once the fruits of effective
governance reach people. To save the party from vanishing from the political
field, Sonia Gandhi must ensure a weak coalition government of regional satraps
who will be plagued by lack of leadership and vulnerability due to precarious
numbers in the Lok Sabha. This arrangement will suit the Congress to catapult itself
into the centre stage within a year or so. The Congress would like a repeat of
the disastrous Janta party experiment of 1977 or the VP Singh government of
1989.If this reminds you of a certain Arvind Kejriwal, don’t be surprised as
history does have an uncanny ability to repeat itself. If opinion polls are
even remotely accurate this is the first time the Congress will lose to a
candidate who has decidedly better resume than their Prime Ministerial
candidate. Not only so this is the first time the Congress will lose not only
for negative voting but also because of an immensely positive vote for Narendra
Modi. Going by the mood of the nation
voters are tilting towards Modi because of some tangible promises. Moreover
this is the first time phrases like “minimum government” and “maximum
governance” has been heard. Empowerment not doles, jobs not quota are some of
the big ideas being communicated to people.
All this goes against the DNA of
the Congress. To maintain relevance it will have no choice but to prop up
two-bit leaders and actively support the formation of an anti-BJP front in the
name of secularism. A fractured mandate will give the Congress room for
manipulations and backroom deals. A fractured verdict will mean a fractured
India. This split verdict will bring untold misery and dash the hopes of
Indians. So it is time the people of India vote out cynicism and vote for hope
and stability with decisive mandate.
An important issue that comes up in this context
is whether coalitions have indeed weakened our ability to govern. It is true
that a government formed by a single party majority can take significant
decisions more easily than in a coalition situation. In a coalition situation
governments are forced to build consensus among the allies. In theory to the
extent that these efforts at consensus building are debated on the merits of
the issues involved, coalition governments are actually healthy. However the
perceptions that these negotiations amongst allies sometimes amount to
unhealthy and unethical quid-pro-quos is gaining around.
If we as a nation are likely to
live with coalition politics, there are some important issues we need to
consider. We need a massive push for enforceable ethics reforms among political
parties, how parties raise funds how much of it needs to be transparent and
other related issues. As a country, we can’t wait for a chance discovery of an
oasis in the desert to save us. This needs a concerted effort of citizens from across the country to push for higher standards in public life.
Debarima Banerjee
M.Sc Media, P.G 1
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